Doha: Amid the rapid developments the world is witnessing due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the impact of natural disasters and extreme weather events, and despite technological advancements and the AI revolution, uncertainty arising from these reactions continues to impact the global economic environment. These implications have maintained the burden of massive costs on the macro-economy in many countries.
According to Qatar News Agency, in its latest reports, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global growth forecast for 2026, reflecting the adaptation of companies and economies to lower tariffs in recent months, as well as the ongoing investment boom in AI, which has boosted asset wealth and productivity prospects. In its World Economic Outlook report, the IMF projected global GDP growth of 3.3 percent in 2026, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over its previous estimate in October, matching the same level expected for 2025. The report attributed the improvement in growth prospects to trade deals that lowered tariffs, the ability of firms to redirect supply chains, and the continuation of AI-related investments.
In this context, the IMF predicted in its annual World Economic Outlook that China's growth in 2026 is expected to reach 4.5 percent, lower than its performance in 2025 at 5 percent, but 0.3 percentage points higher than the October estimate. Meanwhile, the IMF estimated US economic growth in 2026 at 2.4 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast, underpinned by investment in AI infrastructure. At the same time, the IMF lowered its US 2027 growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 2.0 percent.
Commenting on the report's projections, Rajab Abdulla Al Esmail, Professor of Accounting at Qatar University, emphasized that the global economy is on a path of moderate growth with low momentum due to structural constraints, debt, and geopolitical tensions. He noted that the IMF points to a qualitative improvement in adaptation mechanisms rather than a quantitative upsurge in demand, with tariff reductions easing trade costs. Al Esmail explained that companies have demonstrated a greater capability to reorient supply chains and reduce risk, adding that AI supports investment and productivity in advanced economies.
Al Esmail further highlighted the potential impact of US trade policies on the global economy, noting that trade tensions between the US and other major economies could have significant implications for global growth. He suggested that a decline in global inflation is likely but politically fragile due to potential geopolitical escalations or a return to protectionism.
Finally, Al Esmail elaborated on the necessity of reforming the trade system and implementing structural reforms to elevate global growth rates. He emphasized the importance of reducing protectionism, boosting productivity through investment, and extending the benefits of digital transformation and AI to developing economies.